Italy vs Belgium Prediction, Preview, Lineups - Nations League 25 Sep 2026

Match Information

Match: Italy vs Belgium
Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27
League: League A, Group A1
Date: Friday, 25 September 2026
Kickoff: 20:45 CEST
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
Matchday: 1

Where to Watch

In Italy, the match is scheduled for live coverage on Rai 1, with streaming available through Rai Play. UEFA's broadcast information also lists Mediaset and Sky Italia among Italy's Nations League broadcasters.

In Belgium, VTM GO is listed as a broadcast partner. Polish viewers can follow Nations League coverage through Polsat Box Go and TVP Sport

Match Preview

Italy and Belgium begin their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaigns at the Stadio Olimpico, with both nations entering the competition during an important period of transition.

Italy are beginning another rebuilding phase under Roberto Mancini, while Belgium have appointed Mark van Bommel as their new head coach following their run to the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals.

There is no league-table pressure from previous Nations League matches because this is the opening fixture of Group A1. However, the importance of a positive start is clear. France and Türkiye complete the group, meaning points against another seeded opponent could prove significant when the final standings are decided.

Italy's recent international period has produced mixed feelings. The Azzurri missed the 2026 World Cup after losing their qualifying play-off to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties. Their most recent friendlies were more encouraging, with victories over Luxembourg and Greece.

Those two wins were both 1-0, and Francesco Pio Esposito scored in each game The young striker has therefore emerged as one of the interesting attacking options surrounding the new Italy setup. Belgium arrive with greater recent tournament momentum. They reached the quarter-finals at the 2026 World Cup after defeating Senegal and the United States before Spain ended their campaign. The Red Devils scored 14 goals during that tournament, demonstrating the attacking potential available to Van Bommel. However, several important players are unavailable for this Nations League campaign, which means the Belgian coach must adjustments immediately.

Tactical Breakdown

Italy's tactical identity one of the most interesting aspects of this fixture.

Mancini has historically preferred a possession-based 4-3-3, but Italy have also used three central defenders during recent competitive cycles. The current squad gives the coach the flexibility to switch between systems.

A three-man defence could be particularly useful against Belgium because it would allow Italy to protect the central areas while giving the wing-backs freedom to advance.

Barella and Tonali are likely to be important in midfield. Their ability to recover possession and immediately move the ball forward could determine whether Italy can turn defensive recoveries into attacking situations.

Italy will also need to prevent Kevin De Bruyne from finding space between the midfield and defensive lines. The Belgian midfielder remains one of the team's most important creative outlets despite being 35. Belgium have commonly operated with a 4-2-3-1 structure. The system gives De Bruyne freedom behind the striker while two central midfielders provide protection and allow the full-backs to move forward. Romelu Lukaku remains an important reference point in the final third. His ability to hold the ball, occupy centre-backs and bring teammates into play gives Belgium an alternative to simply building attacks through midfield.

Belgium are especially dangerous when the game becomes stretched. Quick passes into wide areas can release their attacking players into space, while Lukaku can become the target for early crosses and direct passes.

Italy's best defensive approach may therefore be to control the tempo rather than allow the match to become an end-to-end contest.

Statistical Analysis

The recent numbers suggest that Italy have been playing relatively controlled matches.

Their two June victories over Luxembourg and Greece were both narrow 1-0 successes. Against Luxembourg, Italy recorded 52 percent possession and 15 attempts, while their estimated expected-goals figure was around 1.43.

Against Greece, Italy had less possession at approximately 42 percent but still created slightly more expected-goal value than their opponents.

Belgium's World Cup numbers were considerably more aggressive. They averaged close to 19 shots per match and around 51 percent possession during the tournament.

Their attacking output was particularly strong against teams that allowed them space. Belgium scored three times against Senegal and four against the United States.

The quarter-final against Spain was different. Belgium had only around 32 percent possession and produced five shots, while Spain generated substantially more attacking threat.

That game provides a useful tactical clue for Italy. If the Azzurri can restrict Belgium's transition opportunities and force them into longer periods of controlled possession, the visitors may become less dangerous.

Team News

Italy

Federico Dimarco is unavailable after failing to recover from a physical problem, with Matteo Ruggeri brought into the squad as his replacement.

Bryan Cristante is also unavailable because of a physical issue.

Alessandro Bastoni is suspended for this match according to current match information.

Italy have also selected a number of younger players as Mancini begins reshaping the national team. Nine players received their first senior call-up in the current squad.

Francesco Pio Esposito is one of the players attracting particular attention after scoring against both Luxembourg and Greece.

Belgium

Thibaut Courtois will not participate in this Nations League campaign after agreeing with Van Bommel that he would miss the competition.

Amadou Onana remains unavailable following his ACL injury.

Jérémy Doku was not included in the squad after his recent calf problem, while Leandro Trossard is also dealing with a heel injury.

Belgium still possess considerable experience through De Bruyne, Lukaku and Tielemans.

Expected Lineups

Italy Expected Lineup

Donnarumma

Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Calafiori

Kayode, Barella, Tonali, Ruggeri

Zaniolo, Raspadori

Pio Esposito

Formation: 3-4-2-1

Belgium Expected Lineup

Lammens

Castagne, De Winter, Theate, De Cuyper

Tielemans, Lavia

Moreira, De Bruyne, Lukebakio

Lukaku

Formation: 4-2-3-1

These are projected lineups rather than confirmed starting XIs. Official teams will be announced before kick-off.

Head-to-Head

• Italy have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Belgium, winning four and drawing one.
• The latest meeting in Belgium ended 1-0 to Italy in the 2024 Nations League.
• Sandro Tonali scored the decisive goal in that match.
• The previous meeting in Rome finished 2-2 after Italy surrendered a two-goal advantage.
• Italy defeated Belgium 2-1 in the 2021 Nations League third-place match.
• Italy also beat Belgium 2-1 at Euro 2020.
• Italy defeated Belgium 2-0 at Euro 2016.

The recent record therefore gives Italy considerable historical confidence in this matchup, although the coaching changes mean previous meetings should not be treated as a direct prediction of Friday's result.

Key Tactical Battle

The central midfield contest could determine the match.

Italy need Barella and Tonali to disrupt Belgium's passing rhythm without leaving excessive space behind them.

Belgium will want De Bruyne to receive the ball in advanced positions. If he can turn and face the Italian defence, Belgium have the players to create chances quickly.

The other important battle will take place in the wide areas.

Italy's wing-backs could provide an attacking outlet, but pushing them forward simultaneously could expose space for Belgium's wide players.

Belgium face a similar dilemma. Their full-backs will want to support attacks, but leaving too much room behind them could give Italy opportunities to counter.

Players to Watch

Kevin De Bruyne

The Belgian captain remains the obvious creative focal point. His passing range and ability to find runners between defensive lines could cause Italy problems.

Nicolò Barella

Barella's pressing, movement and ability to carry the ball forward make him particularly important in a match where midfield control could decide the tempo.

Sandro Tonali

Tonali scored the winner in the previous Nations League meeting between these countries. His defensive positioning and ability to progress possession could again be valuable.

Romelu Lukaku

Lukaku gives Belgium a physical presence that can change the way Italy defend. If he receives early service, the Italian centre-backs will have to manage both his movement and strength.

Francesco Pio Esposito

The young Italian striker enters the match after scoring in consecutive international friendlies. This will be a significantly tougher test, but his recent goals have put him firmly into the conversation.

Italy vs Belgium Prediction

Predicted Score: Italy 1-1 Belgium

A draw is the predicted outcome because both teams have strengths that can cancel each other out.

Italy have home advantage and a strong recent record against Belgium. The Azzurri also have the potential to control the central areas through Barella and Tonali.

However, Belgium possess greater continuity from their recent World Cup campaign and still have elite attacking experience through De Bruyne and Lukaku.

The main factor preventing a more confident prediction is the number of changes on both sides.

Italy are beginning another rebuild under Mancini, while Belgium are adapting to Van Bommel. Both managers have important players missing, and neither side has yet established a settled competitive identity under its current coach.

Italy's recent matches suggest a controlled approach, while Belgium have shown that they can become extremely dangerous when matches open up.

The most logical tactical scenario is therefore a relatively cautious opening followed by periods where both teams attempt to exploit the other's defensive transitions.

A 1-1 draw would give both nations a point from a difficult opening fixture and leave the group wide open heading into the next round of matches.

Final Verdict

Italy vs Belgium is not simply another Nations League fixture. It is the begining of two new managerial chapters.

Italy have the advantage of playing at the Stadio Olimpico and have enjoyed the better recent head-to-head record. Belgium, however, arrive with the confidence of having reached the World Cup quarter-finals and possess considerable experience in key positions.

The midfield battle should be decisive. If Italy can prevent De Bruyne from operating between the lines, they have a strong chance of controlling the match. If Belgium can bypass the Italian midfield and create space around Lukaku, their attacking quality could become the difference.

The prediction is therefore a 1-1 draw in Rome, with both teams likely to have periods of control without completely dominating the contest.

The match could also be decided by small details such as set pieces, defensive mistakes and the efficency of each team's finishing.