Germany vs Serbia Prediction, Preview, Lineups - Nations League 1 Oct 2026

Match Information

Match: Germany v Serbia

Competition: UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A, Group A2, Matchday 3

Date: Thursday, 1 October 2026

Kick-off: 20:45 CEST

Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

Germany and Serbia meet in Munich with both nations still searching for their first Nations League victory of campaign, Germany drew 1-1 with the Netherlands in Amsterdam before losing 1-0 at home to Greece. Serbia began with a 2-1 defeat against Greece and followed it with another 2-1 loss to the Netherlands in Belgrade.

The result has left Greece top of Group A2 with six points, the Netherlands second with 4, Germany third with one and Serbia fourth without a point. The top two progress to the quarter-finals, while the teams finishing in the bottom two positions face relegation consequences under the Nations League format.

Where to Watch

In Germany, the match will be shown live on ZDF, with coverage starting before the 20:45 CEST kick-off. ZDF has confirmed the fixture as part of its Nations League coverage.

In Serbia, UEFA lists RTS Serbia and Arena Sport as the national broadcast partners for Nations League matches. In the United Kingdom, Prime Video UK holds rights for Nations League matches that do not involve England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. UEFA lists FuboTV, FOX Sports and ViX for the United States on the Germany vs Serbia match page.

Match Preview

This is already an important match for Germany, even though the Nations League group phase has only reached its third round. Jürgen Klopp's first two competitive matches produced very different performances but the same basic problem. Germany can dominate possession and territory without making the scoreboard reflect that superiority.

Against Netherlands, Germany led through Felix Nmecha before Cody Gakpo equalised in stoppage time. The Dutch generated 22 shots and 10 efforts on target, compared with 10 shots and two on target for Germany. One expected-goals model put the match at 3.09 xg for the Netherlands and 1.45 for Germany.

The Greece match exposed a different issue. Germany had 76% possecion, 16 shots and five on target, while Greece managed only eight shots and one effort on target. Germany also recorded 8 corners and over 700 passes. The xG figures from the same model were 1.27 for Germany and 0.76 for Greece, yet Dimitrios Kourbelis' 74th-minute goal settled the contest

That defeat makes the Serbia game more significant because Germany cannot afford another night where control brings limited reward. Serbia also arrive under pressure, although their latest performance contained more encouragement than the 2-1 scoreline suggested.

Paunovic's side lost 2-1 to the Netherlands despite improving after half-time. Luka Jovic came off the bench and equalised, but Mexx Meerdink scored again to give the Dutch another away point from Belgrade. Serbia had only 33% possession but still managed 11 shots and six on target. Their xG figure was 1.44 againt 2.76 for the Netherlands.

Across their first two Nations League matches, Germany have averaged roughly 61% possession, while Serbia have averaged around 36% using the same match data set. Germany's combined xG is approximately 2.72 from the opening two games. Serbia's is around 2.76. The more revealing number is expected goals against, where Germany sit around 3.85 and Serbia around 5.25 across those same matches. These figures are model dependent, but they indicate why both defenses remain under scrutiny.

There is also a psychological angle without needing to overplay it. Germany have not won in Klopp's first two matches, while Serbia have lost both group fixtures. Both teams therefore have a clear reason to take the game seriously from the first whistle.

Tactical Breakdown

Germany have started both Nations League matches with a possession-oriented structure. Against the Netherlands, Klopp used a 4-2-3-1 with Joshua Kimmich and Felix Nmecha in central midfield, while Nadiem Amiri operated ahead of them. Against Greece, the recorded shape was listed as 4-1-2-3, although the movement of the midfield still gave Germany a very attacking structure.

The main German attacking idea has been to move the ball quickly into the half-spaces and then use the wide players to stretch the defensive block. That can work well when the attacking midfielders receive between the lines. The problem against Greece was that Germany often moved the ball around the outside without enough clean penetration through the middle.

Florian Wirtz could change that dynamic. He joined the group earlier than initially planned after injuries removed Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz. His ability to receive between midfield and defence gives Germany a different kind of threat. Jonathan Burkardt also arrived early and offers more movement in the penalty area than a static target.

Serbia's tactical picture has shifted during the opening two games. They began against Greece with a 4-4-2, but against the Netherlands their latest shape was recorded as 5-4-1. That deeper structure makes sense against Germany because it can protect the central lanes and force the hosts to circulate the ball in wider areas.

The Serbian plan will likely depend on transition football. Andrija Zivkovic offers width and delivery, while Luka Jovic can attack the spaces between central defenders. Dusan Tadic's experience is also useful when Serbia need someone who can slow the match and pick a forward pass rather than simply clear the ball.

For Germany the danger comes when both full-backs advance at the same time. Serbia will look for the space left outside the central defenders and could use early balls toward Jovic or a supporting midfielder arriving from deep. Germany need better rest-defence in these moments, because the Greece goal showed how quickly a single turnover can reverse the direction of a match.

Analysis

The squard comparison is complicated by Klopp's unusual selection plan. Germany originally named 44 players across two separate groups for this extended international window. After the opening games, only six players from the first group were scheduled to remain, while a second group arrived for the Serbia fixture. Those players included Jonas Urbig, Waldemar Anton, David Raum, Malick Thiaw, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Florian Wirtz, Jonathan Burkardt and Nick Woltemade.

That means Germany will field a side with fresher legs but also less established chemistry. There is several new combinations that Klopp must settle quickly, especially in defence and midfield.

Serbia have their own squad depth issues. Aleksandar Mitrovic and Nikola Milenkovic were already unavailable because of injuries when Paunovic named his squad. Dusan Vlahovic was also unavailable because of a calf problem.

The loss of those three names reduces Serbia's options at both ends of the pitch. Mitrovic provides a physical focal point, Milenkovic adds experience in central defence and Vlahovic normally gives Serbia a powerful outlet in transition.

Germany's recent numbers suggest that creating chances should not be their main concern. Finishing and turning possession into high-quality openings has been the bigger issue. Against Greece, Germany had 30 touches inside the opposition penalty area, yet they still failed to score.

Serbia numbers point in the opposite direction. They have been able to create enough opportunities to score in both Nations League games, but they have also conceded twice in each. Their defensive block will need to stay organised for long periods because Germany are likely to dominate territory.

The most important statistical question is whether Germany can increase the quality rather than the volume of their attacks. Ten low-value attempts are less useful than five clear chances. That distinction may decide the match.

Team News

Germany will definitely be without Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz for this match. Musiala was withdrawn before the Netherlands game after suffering a muscle-fibre tear, while Havertz suffered a muscular injury during the match and returned to Arsenal for treatment,

Brajan Gruda has also been reported as unavailable after withdrawing with an abdominal muscle strain. Florian Wirtz and Jonathan Burkardt were brought into the group earlier than originally expected.

Marc-André ter Stegen, Jonathan Tah and Joshua Kimich were part of the original group and have now returned to their clubs under Klopp's planned rotation system. Jonas Urbig, David Raum and Aleksandar Pavlovic are among the players expected to take larger roles against Serbia.

Germany's current 25-player group includes three goalkeepers, eight defenders, 12 midfielders and two forwards. Nine players in the squad could potentially make their senior international debuts.

Serbia have no confirmed new major injury following their latest match according to the latest preview information, although Strahinja Pavlovic's condition is being watched after he was substituted against the Netherlands. One report described the issue as fatigue rather than a serious injury, while another preview expects him to be available.

The Football Association of Serbia also added goalkeeper Dragan Rosić to the group on September 28 and promoted Ognjen Mimović from the U21 side. Jovan Milosevic, Lazar Nikolic and Stefan Bukinac were released from the senior group.

Predicted Lineups

Germany are expected to stay close to a 4-2-3 1, with the emphasis on giving Wirtz freedom behind the striker.

Germany predicted lineup: Jonas Urbig; Ridle Baku, Waldemar Anton, Malick Thiaw, David Raum; Aleksandar Pavlovic, Vitaly Janelt; Karim Adeyemi, Florian Wirtz, Serge Gnabry; Jonathan Burkardt.

Serbia could use a back five to protect the central areas and release their wide players in transition.

Serbia predicted lineup - Vanja Milinkovic-Savic; Kosta Nedeljkovic, Srđan Babic, Strahinja Pavlovic, Aleksa Terzic, Filip Kostic; Andrija Zivkovic, Saša Lukic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Aleksandar Stankovic, Luka Jovic.

These are projected selections rather than confirmed team sheets. Final lineups will be announced shortly before kick-off.

Head-to-Head

• Germany have the stronger historical record, with UEFA's all-time head-to-head listing 16 German wins, five draws and eight Serbia wins, including meetings involving Yugoslavia.
• The most recent meeting ended 1-1 in Wolfsburg on March 20, 2019, when Luka Jovic scored for Serbia before Leon Goretzka levelled.
• Serbia won the most recent competitive meeting between the modern national teams, beating Germany 1-0 at the 2010 World Cup.
• Germany defeated Serbia 2-1 in a friendly in 2008.
• The 2019 draw was the first meeting between the sides since the 2010 World Cup.
• The four most recent modern-era meetings listed by worldfootball include two Germany wins, one Serbia win and one draw. The combined score across those four matches is 4-3 to Germany.
• This will be the first Nations League meeting between Germany and Serbia, adding a new competitive chapter to a long international rivalry.

Prediction

Germany 2-1 Serbia

Germany's current results make a comfortable win difficult to assume. They have taken only one point from their first two matches and scored just once, while Serbia have also lost both games and conceded four goals.

The strongest case for Germany is territorial control. They have shown they can dominate possession, move the ball deep into opposition territory and generate a steady stream of attacks. The arrival of Wirtz and Burkardt also gives Klopp more attacking variety after the injuries to Musiala and Havertz.

Serbia should still pose a real problem. Their response against the Netherlands was more organised, and Jovic immediately added a different threat after coming off the bench. A back-five structure can frustrate Germany if it remains compact and the midfield protects the space around the penalty area.

The deciding factor can be Germany's ability to produce better chances rather than simply more possession. If Wirtz finds room between the Serbian midfield and defence, Germany should have enough creativity to break through. Serbia's absences in attack also make it harder to expect sustained pressure at the other end.

The match feels more likely to remain competitive for long periods than become an open contest. Germany should have most of the ball, while Serbia look set to defend deeper and wait for moments on the counter. A narrow home victory therefore looks like the most realistic scoreline from the available evidence.

Final prediction: Germany 2-1 Serbia

Germany to score first, with Serbia remaining dangerous enough to find a response before the hosts regain control late in the game.