Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview, Lineups - Premier League 17 Oct 2026

 

Match Information

Saturday at St James' Park. 4.30pm UK time, 17.30 CEST. Newcastle vs Aston Villa. Premier League Matchday 9.

It is not where either club thought they would be. Newcastle sit 11th. Six played so far. Eight points on the board. Two wins. Two draws. Two defeats. Ten scored, thirteen conceded. Not the start they wanted.

That tells you how tight it has been. Both have looked better in Europe than in the league. Newcastle under Matthias Jaissle are still finding their shape after a big summer. Villa under Unai Emery have had to deal with a long injury list and a Champions League schedule that has not helped league form. The crowd will be up for this one. Home form has kept Newcastle afloat.

Where to Watch

In the UK it is Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event. Stream it on Sky Go or NOW. Kick off 16.30 BST.

In the US it is on NBC and USA Network, streaming on Peacock. If you have Peacock Premium you get it live.

In Canada it is on Fubo. Australia is Optus Sport. India is Star Sports Select and Disney+ Hotstar. Everywhere else check your local Premier League broadcaster. Times can shift late so check your app on Saturday morning.

Match Preview

Newcastle come into this after a bad one. 4-1 away at Coventry on Monday. Newly promoted side, full house, and Newcastle never really got going. They were open on the right and Coventry kept hitting that channel. It was their second league defeat in three.

Before that the form was mixed. Draw, win, loss, win, loss. That is the D W L W L you see on the table. At home they have been different though. Seven of their eight points have come at St James' Park. They have scored in every home league game.

Villa arrive with a strange split. In the league they are struggling. In Europe they just hammered Fenerbahce 6-0 away on Wednesday night. Six nil. Away. That is not a fluke. Jackson scored twice, Buendia and McGinn got one each. So confidence in front of goal is there, just not in the league.

Their league run before that was actually decent if you take all comps. W W W D W across the last five. That includes wins over Brentford and Burnley and that European night. But away in the league they have only one point.

Stakes are clear. Newcastle need to get back toward the European spots before the gap grows. Villa need to pull away from the bottom three. Both teams have tough fixtures after this. Newcastle go to Arsenal then host Chelsea. Villa host Man City after this. So this is the game both will target.

Stats wise, Newcastle top scorer is Anthony Elanga with a few already, Villa top scorer is Nicolas Jackson with three in all comps. Newcastle average more shots at home, around thirteen per game, five on target. Villa away average closer to nine shots, three on target. That explains the xG gap.

Tactical Breakdown

Newcastle play 4-3-3 on paper. In possession it becomes 3-2-5. One full back inverts next to Bruno Guimaraes, the other stays wide. Against Coventry, Hall stayed wide and Miley tucked in. It gives them a box in midfield.

They press high for the first twenty minutes then drop into a mid block. The trigger is a sideways pass to the opposition full back. Murphy and Barnes jump, Bruno covers the lane. When it works they win it high and go straight to goal. When it fails they leave space behind the full backs. Coventry punished that.

Villa are classic Emery. 4-2-3-1 that defends as 4-4-2. Kamara and Joao Gomes sit, McGinn pushes up to make the second striker when they press. Full backs go high. Digne and Cash provide most of the width.

Their defensive shape is compact. Distance between defence and midfield is short, maybe ten to twelve metres. Hard to play through. Their problem has been the left side. Maatsen out, Ruggeri out, Digne has had to play every minute and he was exposed against Brentford. They have conceded a lot from crosses to the far post.

In transition Villa are good. If you give Buendia time between the lines he finds Jackson running the channel. Jackson likes the left channel, running onto a ball from deep. That could hurt Newcastle if Botman is not fit.

Adjustment wise, expect Newcastle to try and pin Villa. Keep Villa's full backs deep. Force them long. Villa without Onana struggle to play through a press because Pau Torres is good on the ball but Lindelof is more direct. If Newcastle win first contacts they can keep them there.

Analysis

Depth matters here. Newcastle have more options up top. Even with Elanga a doubt, they have Barnes, Murphy, Wissa, and Willock who can play higher. Full back is thin though. Livramento out, Burn doubtful, so they are down to Hall and Miley who is naturally a midfielder.

Villa have depth in midfield when everyone is fit, but right now they are not. Onana ruptured his ACL at the World Cup with Belgium and is out for months. That is a big loss. It means Kamara has to play every game. No real backup.

Momentum is split. League momentum is with Newcastle at home. Overall momentum is with Villa because of that 6-0. Home and away splits are stark. Newcastle at St James' Park average 1.66 xG for, 1.4 xG against, 54 percent possession. Villa away average 0.95 xG for, 1.6 against, 48 percent possession. Chance creation at home favours Newcastle.

Set pieces could decide it. Newcastle have scored three from set pieces this season, Villa have conceded four from set pieces away. Both teams struggle to defend second balls after the first clearance. Whoever wins those will have territory.

Psychology too. Newcastle lost heavily last week and need a response. Villa won heavily midweek and might be a bit leggy. Travel from Istanbul to Newcastle is not easy. Emery will have to manage minutes.

Team News

Newcastle have no suspensions.

Bazoumana Toure is a major doubt after an ankle knock against Coventry. Possible return is Saturday but unlikely to start. Ewen Jaouen is out with a hamstring injury until December after surgery. Jacob Ramsey is a major doubt with a thigh injury, same as Anthony Elanga who has a thigh issue but the club hope he makes the bench. Valentino Livramento is out with a thigh problem. Dan Burn is close after an ankle problem and could return around this game. Tino Livramento remains out. Joelinton and Nico Gonzalez are expected back in the squad after using the international break to rehab. That would be a big boost in midfield.

Aston Villa have no suspensions either.

Amadou Onana is out long term with ACL. Ian Maatsen is out with an ankle. Matteo Ruggeri is out with a thigh injury. Brian Madjo is a minor doubt with an ankle since August, could make the bench. George Hemmings is a major doubt with a knee. Modou Keba Cisse is a major doubt with a groin. Pau Torres is a doubt after missing the Fenerbahce game. Leon Goretzka and Marco Bizot have been listed as doubtful in some reports. Alysson missed the Brentford game with a muscular problem.

Predicted lineups, not confirmed:

Newcastle 4-3-3: Pope; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton, Willock; Murphy, Wissa, Barnes.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Lindelof, Digne; Kamara, Joao Gomes; Rogers, Buendia, McGinn; Jackson.

Head to Head

- Last five league games are tight. Villa 0-0 Newcastle 16 Aug 2025, Villa 4-1 Newcastle 19 Apr 2025, Newcastle 3-0 Villa 26 Dec 2024, Villa 1-3 Newcastle 30 Jan 2024, Newcastle 5-1 Villa 12 Aug 2023.

- Most recent meetings were in January and February 2026. Villa beat Newcastle 2-0 at St James' Park on 25 Jan 2026 in the league. Newcastle beat Villa 3-1 at Villa Park on 14 Feb 2026 in the FA Cup.

- At St James' Park Newcastle have won two of the last three league games against Villa and kept two clean sheets in that run.

- Over 2.5 goals has landed in three of the last four league games at this ground between these two.

- Villa have not kept a clean sheet at St James' Park since 2020.

- The team scoring first has won four of the last five league meetings, which shows how important the first goal is.

- All time, 178 meetings, Newcastle 77 wins, Villa 61, 40 draws.

Prediction

Prediction Highlight: Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa

I have got Newcastle to edge it 2-1.

Why. Home advantage is real here. Seven of Newcastle's eight points at home. Villa with one point away in the league. Newcastle create more at home, around 1.66 xG per game, Villa concede 1.6 away.

Injuries lean to Newcastle too. Villa missing Onana, Maatsen and Ruggeri takes away left side balance. Newcastle getting Joelinton and Gonzalez back helps them win second balls.

Both teams score looks likely. Data has both teams to score at 58 percent. Villa have scored in four of last five at St James'. Newcastle have scored in every home game. So 2-1 fits.

If Elanga starts, Newcastle have extra pace in behind. If not, Barnes has to be clinical. For Villa, Buendia between the lines is key. If he finds pockets, Jackson can hurt them. I think Newcastle get the first goal, Villa equalise, then a set piece or second phase wins it late for the home side.