Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction: Match Preview, Lineups, Team News & Analysis

Competition: Bundesliga 2026/27
Date: Friday, 28 August 2026
Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich

Match Preview

Bayern Munich begin their Bundesliga title defence with a difficult home fixture against VfB Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena on Friday, 28 August 2026. The champions will be expected to start the new campaign strongly, but Stuttgart are not arriving in Munich simply to make up the numbers.

The match is the opening fixture of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season, meaning there is no league table to assess yet and neither side has accumulated Bundesliga points. Instead, the early indicators come from their competitive matches before the league campaign and their performances during the previous season.

Bayern finished the 2025/26 Bundesliga season as champions, while Stuttgart secured fourth place and a return to Champions League football. That makes this an interesting meeting between the reigning champions and one of Germany's strongest challengers outside the traditional title contenders.

There is also very recent history between the teams. Bayern defeated Stuttgart 4-2 in the Bundesliga at the Allianz Arena in April 2026 before beating them again, 3-0, in the DFB-Pokal final in May.

Bayern have already lifted silverware this season after beating Borussia Dortmund 2-1 in the German Super Cup. Michael Olise and Nathaniel Brown scored for Vincent Kompany's side in that match, giving the champions a competitive test before the Bundesliga opener.

Stuttgart have also started the campaign positively. Sebastian Hoeneß's team recorded a 4-0 victory away against Hansa Rostock in the DFB-Pokal, with new striker Dženan Pejčinović scoring a hat-trick on his competitive debut.

The visitors therefore have reason to believe they can cause problems. Bayern, however, will enter the contest with home advantage, greater squad depth and a recent record against Stuttgart that strongly favours them.

Tactical Breakdown

Bayern are likely to operate from a 4-2-3-1 formation, although their shape can become much more fluid once they have possession. Joshua Kimmich is expected to have an important role in controlling the tempo from midfield, while the attacking players will look to stretch Stuttgart's defensive structure.

Harry Kane provides Bayern with a natural reference point in the final third. The England captain can drop into deeper positions to participate in build-up play before moving into the penalty area when Bayern attack from the wings.

Michael Olise is another major tactical weapon. Starting from the right, he can remain wide to create space or move inside to combine with Kane and the midfield players. Luis Díaz offers a different threat on the opposite side through his pace and ability to attack defenders directly.

Bayern's pressing will also be important. When they lose possession, Kompany's team often attempt to recover the ball quickly rather than immediately dropping into a deep defensive block.

Stuttgart's approach is likely to be more flexible. Hoeneß has built a team that is comfortable keeping possession but is also willing to attack quickly when space appears. The expected 4-2-3-1 setup gives them a solid midfield base while allowing the attacking players freedom to interchange.

Angelo Stiller should be particularly important in Stuttgart's attempt to escape Bayern's pressure. Deniz Undav offers experience and finishing ability in the attacking line, while the pace of players around him can create opportunities during transitions.

The main tactical danger for Stuttgart is the space they could leave when pushing forward. Bayern are extremely dangerous when opponents lose the ball in advanced positions. If Stuttgart's midfield becomes stretched, Bayern's attacking quality could turn small defensive mistakes into clear chances.

Analysis

The statistical comparison from the 2025/26 Bundesliga season illustrates why Bayern are favourites.

Bayern averaged approximately 67.4 percent possession last season, the highest figure in the division. Stuttgart were also comfortable dominating the ball, averaging around 57.7 percent. That means Friday's game could involve two teams trying to control possession rather than Stuttgart simply defending for 90 minutes.

The difference was more obvious in attacking production. Bayern scored 122 Bundesliga goals during the previous campaign, while Stuttgart scored 71. Bayern's expected-goals figure was also considerably higher, at approximately 98.3 xG compared with around 61.6 xG for Stuttgart.

Those figures do not guarantee another Bayern victory, particularly because this is the first league game of a new season. They do, however, demonstrate the attacking gap between the sides over a full campaign.

The most recent league meeting provides further evidence. Bayern's 4-2 victory in April saw them register 28 shots compared with 11 from Stuttgart. They also controlled 66.2 percent of possession and recorded nine shots on target.

The expected-goals numbers from that game were similarly favourable to Bayern. The hosts generated more than four expected goals, while Stuttgart finished with roughly 1.2 xG.

Bayern's squad depth could become another decisive factor. The champions can change the character of a game with substitutions because they possess quality across several attacking and midfield positions.

Stuttgart have developed into a very competitive side, but their squad does not possess the same depth as Bayern. That difference becomes particularly important at the Allianz Arena, where Bayern can maintain pressure for long periods.

There is nevertheless one reason for Stuttgart supporters to remain optimistic. The team finished fourth last season and have already demonstrated their attacking potential in the cup. If they can keep their defensive distances compact and avoid losing possession in dangerous central areas, they should be capable of creating problems.

Team News

Bayern have several fitness issues to monitor before kick-off.

Serge Gnabry is unavailable because of a groin problem, while Jamal Musiala has been a fitness concern after missing the German Super Cup. Lennart Karl has also been dealing with a hamstring problem.

Musiala's situation will be watched particularly closely. His availability would provide Bayern with another creative option between midfield and attack, but Kompany has enough alternatives to avoid taking unnecessary risks with a player who is not fully ready.

A possible Bayern starting XI is:

Manuel Neuer; Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Kim Min-jae, Josip Stanišić; Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović; Michael Olise, Nathaniel Brown, Luis Díaz; Harry Kane.

Stuttgart have their own injury concerns. Luca Jaquez, Lorenz Assignon, Leo Sauer, Dennis Seimen, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Nikolas Nartey, Justin Diehl and Jeremy Arévalo are among the players unavailable.

Chris Führich's involvement remains a question, while Jamie Leweling has returned to first-team training and is travelling with the squad.

A possible Stuttgart lineup is:

Fabian Bredlow; Josha Vagnoman, Finn Jeltsch, Julian Chabot, Maximilian Mittelstädt; Grischa Prömel, Angelo Stiller; Bilal El Khannouss, Deniz Undav, Tiago Tomás; Dženan Pejčinović.

The final lineups will depend on late fitness checks and the managers' tactical decisions.

Head-to-Head

• Bayern have historically dominated this fixture, winning 88 of their 132 competitive meetings during the Bundesliga era.
• Bayern have won the last six meetings against Stuttgart.
• Stuttgart's most recent victory over Bayern came in May 2024.
• Bayern won the latest Bundesliga meeting 4-2 at the Allianz Arena in April 2026.
• Bayern then defeated Stuttgart 3-0 in the DFB-Pokal final in May 2026.
• The April league meeting produced 39 shots, with Bayern accounting for 28 of them.
• Despite Bayern's dominance, Stuttgart finished fourth in the previous Bundesliga campaign and remain one of the division's strongest attacking teams.

Prediction

Bayern Munich are deserved favourites for the opening Bundesliga fixture, particularly with the Allianz Arena behind them.

The champions have already played a competitive match this season and defeated Borussia Dortmund in the Super Cup. That game provided Kompany's team with valuable competitive minutes before the league campaign.

Stuttgart should be much more difficult opponents than their 4-0 cup victory over Hansa Rostock might suggest. Hoeneß has developed a side capable of controlling possession and creating chances, and the visitors have enough attacking quality to punish Bayern if the hosts become careless.

The biggest issue for Stuttgart is likely to be the amount of pressure they face. Bayern can attack through both wings, combine centrally and use Kane as a focal point. If Stuttgart's midfield cannot protect the space in front of their defence, Bayern could generate repeated opportunities.

The recent head-to-head record is another major factor. Bayern have beaten Stuttgart six times consecutively, including victories in both the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal during 2026.

Stuttgart should still find a way to create chances. Their possession-based approach means they are unlikely to sit permanently in their own penalty area, and that could produce openings against Bayern's defensive line.

However, Bayern's greater attacking depth, home advantage, recent competitive sharpness and superior numbers from last season make them the more convincing choice.

Prediction: Bayern Munich 3-1 VfB Stuttgart

Kane is a strong candidate to influence the result, while Olise and Díaz could cause significant problems in one-on-one situations. Stuttgart should have moments of their own, but Bayern's sustained pressure is expected to make the difference.

The Bundesliga season therefore looks set to begin with Bayern Munich taking three points, although Stuttgart have enough quality to ensure this is not a straightforward opening-night victory.